At 16:00 on April 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its monthly oil market report, raising its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), an upward revision of 0.3 mb/d from the previous month. Global daily demand is set to reach a record 103.8 million barrels, supported by recovering jet fuel and industrial oil use, as well as rising imports by China, India and other Asian economies.

On the supply side, the IEA lowered non-OPEC+ supply growth to 1.2 mb/d, as slower U.S. shale expansion and weaker-than-expected output in Canada and Brazil limited supply gains. OPEC+ extended its voluntary production cuts through the end of 2026, maintaining a reduction of 2.2 mb/d. Coupled with disruptions to some Iranian and Iraqi oil exports amid Middle East tensions, the global oil market has entered a supply deficit, with a projected shortfall of 1.5 mb/d in the second quarter.

In response to the report, international oil prices traded higher. WTI crude rose 2.6% to $99.08 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 4.37% to $99.36. The IEA Executive Director emphasized that the restoration of Middle Eastern energy supplies could take two years, and oil prices could surpass $110 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions escalate. Markets are currently balancing geopolitical risks and supply tightness against hopes for de-escalation through U.S.-Iran negotiations, keeping prices volatile at high levels in the near term.