On May 18, 2026, international oil prices surged. Brent crude topped $111 per barrel intraday, up 1.6%, while WTI crude rose above $102/bbl, up 0.67%. The rally is driven mainly by escalating Middle East tensions: Iran’s vice president announced that enemy military equipment will no longer be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. took a hard line in negotiations; and Trump publicly warned Iran that “time is running out,” sharply raising conflict risks.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 30% of global crude oil and 40% of LNG shipments. Expectations of disrupted shipping have boosted risk premiums in oil futures. In addition, Russian oil tankers continue operations despite sanctions, OPEC+ maintains production cuts, global crude inventories keep falling, and the supply-demand balance remains tight. Higher oil prices are feeding into global inflation: U.S. gasoline prices are rising again, European energy costs are under renewed pressure, and some Asian countries face imported inflation. Markets expect that if Middle East tensions worsen further, Brent could test $115–$120/bbl, creating new uncertainties for the global economic recovery.