On May 18, 2026, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released April’s key economic data, with multiple indicators beating market expectations and signaling stronger recovery momentum. In April, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 8.3% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points higher than March. Catering revenue, automobile sales, and home appliance consumption all improved noticeably. Industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size increased 6.1% YoY, led by equipment manufacturing, electronic information, and new energy industries. From January to April, fixed asset investment grew 4.7% YoY. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment remained stable, while the decline in real estate development investment continued to narrow, gradually restoring market confidence.

Consumption recovery stood out. The May Day holiday consumption data exceeded expectations, service consumption heated up, and online-offline integration accelerated. On the industrial side, driven by new productive forces, sectors such as AI, industrial internet, and smart equipment saw strong orders and rising capacity utilization. Policy support for consumption stabilization, real estate easing, and private economy development continued to take effect. Combined with a low base effect, GDP growth in Q2 is expected to pick up further. Several international institutions revised up China’s full-year growth forecast; Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 GDP growth estimate to 4.8%, noting that recovering domestic demand and industrial upgrading will underpin steady expansion.